Archives » 2008 » November

Yes Obama can — but the SNP can’t

Hello everyone and welcome to part 2 of this week’s bumper edition. This post has the reactions to this week’s elections.

Most immediately affecting Scottish politics is the Glenrothes by-election. By all accounts it was an absolute shocker of a result. Not so much the fact that Labour won — and congratulations to Cabalamat (and, er, me) for predicting that. But the margin of Labour’s victory has demanded analysis.

Stephen Glenn wonders how the SNP (and the media) got the predictions wrong when it was clear to him that things weren’t going the SNP’s way. Meanwhile, Mike Smithson looks at the lessons punters can learn from the unexpected result of the Glenrothes by-election.

Will Patterson took a look at each of the parties that contested the Glenrothes by-election, as did Malc. Alasdair also added his thoughts, as did Adopted Domain.

Alex Massie thinks it would have been an embarrassment if Labour had lost this election after all the effort they put in — but that it’s still an awful result for the SNP.

Ewan Aitken is of course pleased. But he is also cautious as the election was fought mainly on local issues. Labour won’t be able to relax until a nationwide trend towards Labour emerges. Big Rab was one of many to say that Fife has a political outlook of its own, so perhaps too much shouldn’t be read into the result.

West World thinks that Labour’s negative campaign focussed on local issues did not dent the SNP’s vote — but it did allow Labour to build an anti-SNP coalition.

Meanwhile, Ideas of Civilisation had so many thoughts that he wrote two posts — one for the SNP and one for Labour.

Amid all the talk of a “Brown bounce” and the resurgence of Labour, The Nameless Libertarian thinks the Glenrothes by-election means little for Labour as a whole — they will still lose the next General Election.

For Little Man in a Toque, the Glenrothes result is not as disappointing as it is to some other English nationalists.

Tory Bear has noticed that Lindsay Roy himself has said that the Glenrothes by-election was not a “referendum” on Gordon Brown.

Meanwhile, Mark McDonald rejects the idea that the SNP’s defeat in Glenrothes represents the end of the honeymoon.

One of the SNP’s excuses has been the fact that Labour were able to call on the help of activists from down south. But Scottish Tory Boy asks if this is really such a bad thing — particularly since the SNP sometimes relies on help from Plaid Cymru activists.

Yousuf reckons that the result was not down to one party having a bigger or better organisation. He thinks there was a real grass roots revolt against the SNP.

From the SNP perspective, Richard Thomson writes this honest assessment of what went on in Glenrothes. And Bellgrove Belle looks at what happened in Baillieston as well as Glenrothes.

Indygal compared Glenrothes to other disappointing results for the SNP over the past couple of decades, but thinks that the belief that what they are doing is right will continue to energise SNP activists.

Not quite so reflective was the response from some cybernats, which Scottish Unionist unearthed.

From the Lib Dem perspective, Caron says she was disappointed with, but not surprised at, the result. And Iain Rubie Dale confessed to feeling some pain at the result.

Meanwhile, Stephen Tall at Lib Dem Voice reflects on what the result means for the Lib Dems.

West World notes that the SNP are now seen as the ‘government’ and Labour is the ‘opposition’, and both parties are behaving as though they are in those roles.

Meanwhile, Holyrood Watcher wonders if the SNP’s defeat in Glenrothes means that Iain Gray will be mobilised to challenge Alex Salmond’s position as First Minister.

On a more entertaining note, Tom Harris has this story from the campaign trail.

The most important matter of the election was of course the quality of the BBC’s coverage, which didn’t impress Jacq Kelly too much.

North Britain attempts to find the silver lining for the SNP, positing that Glenrothes is just the SNP’s “New Hampshire”.

The SNP might not want to compare themselves to Barack Obama too often though. As James at Two Doctors points out, it is pretty shabby for a politician to compare himself to the new US President-elect. Of course, Alex Salmond wasn’t the only one, as Tom Harris notes.

But Salmond’s comments were of more immediate effect to Scottish politics. Mr Smith notes that Alex Salmond’s “yes we can” photocall has been described as his “Kinnock moment”.

It was the second time in a week that Mr Salmond was caught clinging onto Barack Obama’s coat tails. Bill Cameron thought that the First Minister’s eagerness to point out Obama’s Scottish link was parochial.

Yes, the whole world is gripped by Obamania. But not quite everyone has been taken in yet. Clairwil reckons she sees a Tony Blair figure with no real beliefs.

Stewart Kirkpatrick also has reservations, asking why Mr Obama feels the need to reach out to Republicans.

Jack Deighton also adds a note of caution along with Mark Gallagher who partially blames the two party system.

In a similar vein Niall at the Mushkush Miscellany adds his own “predictably cynical” comments on Obama’s victory.

Anas also thinks that Obama’s success is more about symbolic change than policy change.

Lis has some nagging doubts in her mind about Obama, but is prepared to hope with him for the time being.

Meanwhile, James at Two Doctors believes that the Greens should have endorsed Barack Obama and thinks that the comparison to Tony Blair doesn’t stand up.

wee-h thinks that other politicians should learn from Barack Obama’s approach.

Meanwhile, North Britain notes that Obama’s triumph is a realisation of the American dream. Kevin Williamson congratulates the USA. And Angus Nicolson is delighted.

Flying Rodent thinks the election is historic because the USA has elected “their first non-asshole president in living memory.”

Michael Greenwell has perhaps one of the most negative reactions to Obama’s victory that I have seen, arguing that an Obama Presidency will not mean change at all.

Ideas of Civilisation takes an in-depth look at what an Obama Presidency might mean.

Barack Obama will clearly have a lot on his plate. But Julie McAnulty thinks that healthcare will be one of the biggest problems he will have to face.

Malc analyses the reasons why Obama won and McCain lost.

Looking at the Republicans, alannaonline asks what was going through their minds when they chose George Bush over John McCain in 2000. Meanwhile, Bernard Salmon wonders what Mr McCain could have done better to win the election.

Alex Massie was disappointed in some of the non-American media coverage and said that Jon Snow almost made him wish for a McCain victory!

But Niall was more concerned with some Republicans’ reactions to Obama’s victory.

Coming back to a more local level, Ewan Aitken celebrates Cammy Day’s victory in the Forth ward by-election.

Phew! That’s it. Next week everything should be back to normal, and I am working to find a guest editor for next week. As always, please do get your nominations in by either using the form on the right or by emailing scottishroundup@gmail.com. Thanks!

The pre-post-election special non-special

Hello, and welcome to part 1 of this week’s roundup. That’s right. There was so much great bloggery to digest that I have decided to split the roundup into two parts. All the reaction to this week’s elections will be coming up later today in a bumper edition of the roundup. In the meantime, here is the slightly disappointing support act featuring what little non-election japes bloggers could bring themselves to write about this week.

Away from the excitement of elections, the economy continues to make itself noticed. Angus Nicolson was surprised by the Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates by 1.5%.

Jamie Cooke has a balanced look at what the Scottish Conservatives need to do if they are to make headway in Scotland.

Stephen Bowman welcomes Margo MacDonald’s call for the legalisation of assisted suicide, saying he can accept no argument against a person’s right to die.

Caron notes that the Saltire should be a symbol for all Scots, not just the SNP.

Both Big Rab and Calum Carr cast their eyes over Larkhall, where sectarianism is apparently so bad that retailers who set up there eschew their normal green logos for blue adaptations. But reading Calum Carr’s post, is it so simple?

Angus Nicolson wonders what Jim Murphy was playing at when he leaked details of a potential bid for HBOS.

Bernard Salmon is wearily unsurprised that Donald Trump’s planning application has now been given the nod. Alannaonline has this take on it.

Clairwil points out that it’s the last chance to save Paddy’s Market.

Yousuf thinks he has worked out why governments find it so difficult to change anything.

Cabalamat picks up on the revelation that taking a photograph of yourself with a sword is now apparently a criminal offence.

James at Two Doctors wonders why support for the Greens does not appear to be correlated with concern about the environment.

Tom Harris shared his thoughts on the Poppy appeal after he filmed an interview without realising he wasn’t wearing a poppy.

In the wake of the Russell Brand / Jonathan Ross controversy, Richard Havers took a look at what he sees as the problem with the BBC and Radio 2 in particular. Alannaonline has this reaction to the hoo-ha.

Meanwhile, Clairwil has found something to get really enraged about — the treatment of disabled children in Turkish orphanages.

Surreptitious Evil has some thoughts on the BNP.

Alex Massie bemoans Hazel Blears’s comments about blogging. Meanwhile, in other navel-gazing news, Will Patterson looks at the role of Scottish Labour in the blogosphere.

Finally, congratulations to Iain Dale who got married this week.

Okay, that’s all the non-election stuff rounded up. Stay tuned for bloggers’ thoughts on the elections which will be coming up later today.

Fighting for Fife: The Glenrothes By-Election Special

Hi folks! Hot on the heels of Tuesday’s look across the Atlantic, we now home in on a corner of the Kingdom of Fife, where polls have closed in an election which might not have been quite so successful in capturing the world’s imagination but has captured a lot of attention in the blogosphere.

And just as the challenging party in America had enough momentum for some commentators to paint Barack Obama as a quasi-incumbent, so the media have viewed the SNP (who came second in 2005) in the same way. And just like Obama supporters on Tuesday, SNP tails are up. IndyGal, Anseo and Julie all hail the number of SNP activists in the constituency.

From a more neutral perspective, David Farrer dives right in to citizen journalism and gets a surprising level of access at the SNP’s campaign HQ in Markinch.

James, however, isn’t too impressed by the SNP’s attempts to compare itself with the Obama phenomenon, while Stephen Glenn accuses the party of trying to massage bookies’ odds. I just hope that anyone who did put a tenner on the SNP when their odds were slightly longer knew enough about betting to take the price they were being offered and get it written on the slip, as the odds have since come in. Stephen also comments on suggestions that Peter Grant doesn’t want to stay at Westminster for too long, while Jeff points out that he doesn’t want any Scottish MP to stay there beyond 2010.

For Labour, reports are not supportive. Mainly as they’re written by supporters of their main challengers: Calum Cashley accuses Labour of panic. BellgroveBelle questions the wisdom of deploying Sarah Brown in Glenrothes, while Anseo understands that Labour may have been using automated phone calls, which would be rather naughty. Ian Hamilton condemns the Labour staffer who warned journalists that they’d get shot if they got any closer to Mrs. Brown, while Jess the Dog reveals that Gordon Brown’s part in the campaign took place within a 500-yard radius of Labour’s HQ. And North Britain suggests an alternative reason for Labour not to stray too far from home too often, and to carry guns when they do.

Tom Harris, meanwhile, takes time out to mention an unfortunate canvasser who found herself on the wrong end of a very cheeky prank.

For the LibDems, reports are mixed. Caron compares the parties’ literature and concludes that the LibDems’ material comes out on top. Calum Cashley reports that the LibDem priority is to save the party’s deposit. Caron, however, prefers to talk about saving local post offices.

Stephen brings up various moments of inter-party bonhomie.

West World saw the candidates on STV, and was less than impressed with what he saw.

Jeff notes that neither Labour nor the SNP tried to keep expectations in check.

Now it’s prediction time:

Anseo tips the SNP.

Holyrood Patter calls it for the SNP, while remarking on how little of the Labour campaign can actually be dealt with by the winner of the Westminster By-Election.

Jess the Dog compares the two main campaigns and favours the SNP as the winner.

Steve Green predicts that the SNP will win, but that the damage to Gordon Brown will be limited. On a similar note, The Nameless Libertarian predicts that Labour will only consider the result to be important if it’s a Labour win.

Angus Nicolson predicts a close result, but hears that the SNP are ahead. He also points out that the victory won’t be all that sweet for whoever wins, while whoever comes second will face an unforgiving press.

Ewan Aitken predicts a close result, but puts Labour in with a chance. Luke Akehurst, however, has resigned himself to a Labour defeat.

Push Jelly, however, forecasts a shock swing to a certain Mr. B. Obama!

So that’s your lot: the regular schedule resumes on Sunday (I hope!), and I have a darkened room to lie down in. Bye-de-bye!

Liveblogging the US Election

I’ll keep this updated regularly – if you want a blog adding, drop me a line through via MacNumpty so I can post it here! Anyway, I’ll be around, as will the following:

Alex Massie

BellgroveBelle

Bernard Salmon

Caron

Holyrood Patter

Malc in the Burgh

Keep checking here for more, as and when they emerge!

Obama-rama-ding-dong: The US Election Special

Hi folks! Following on from Sunday’s tease, I’m in the hotseat for what promises to be a night of high emotion. Already, officials in Virginia have announced that about a third of registered voters showed up in the first four hours of polling, and that Petersburg has seen half-mile-long queues to the polling stations. Despite the fact that the Scottish blogosphere doesn’t have a vote, it has mobilised, and all year long, the Roundup has charted the successes and failures of America’s Presidential candidates. We are now in the last lap.

Most Scottish bloggers who expressed an opinion have come out for Barack Obama. Bill Cameron looks at the Obama 30-minute infomerical, and compares it with the McCain advertisements. His verdict is that the Democrat represents hope versus the Republican’s campaign of fear. Kevin Williamson produces a stronger verdict still: that an Obama win would be the triumph of hope over racism. Fraser Macpherson backs Obama, but is simply relived that the Bush administration is on its way out. Holyrood Watcher thinks that if the Senator for Illinois approaches office the way he’s approached the campaign, he’ll be remembered as a great President.

And there have been last-minute discussions of the campaign itself: Tom Harris MP asks whether the 30-minute infomercial last Tuesday might actually be counter-productive, especially as it caused the start of the World Series game to be delayed. Ewan Watt, meanwhile, is displeased that some of Obama’s supporters argued that to oppose their candidate was to be racist. Alex Massie argues that timing has been Obama’s strong point, and that the unique set of circumstances in play this year mean that it’s 2008 or never for the Senator. Malc notes that an element of complacency may have crept into the Obama camp. Meanwhile, Bernard Salmon reports on an endorsement that might spell trouble for the Democrat.

On the other side, Neil Craig offers his support for John McCain and Sarah Palin. But the Senator from Arizona doesn’t get much of a look-in from Scottish bloggers: most of the attention is on his Alaskan running-mate, and it’s not positive.

Malc suggests that McCain’s selection of Governor Palin was a mistake; Bernard Salmon notes that the McCain camp has started to shift the blame onto his Vice-Presidential nominee. James finds Palin’s record on issues surrounding Native Alaskans somewhat wanting, while Bernard notes her association with Alaskan Senator Ted Stevens, who is seeking re-election but last week was found guilty of corruption.

Staying with Palin, and a smile was raised when the former Mayor of Wasilla was hoodwinked by a Canadian prank-caller (theirs appear to be classier than ours), who managed to persuade her that he was Nicolas Sarkozy. Bill Cameron reckons it reflects awfully on her. Ewan Watt, however, feels that the BBC have made a meal of the story, and argues that it shows a pro-Obama bias in the UK MSM.

Speaking of which, Alex Massie finds Jon Snow’s reporting for Channel 4 sanctimonious and patronising. Personally, I thought that was C4′s remit. And Holyrood Watcher notes the UK media scrum, with the BBC, ITV and Sky all providing through-the-night coverage. Malc reckons that the US media has been pro-Obama, while Flying Rodent has his own views on the campaign, as viewed through the prism of the MSM.

Looking back, Bernard asks readers who ran the greatest post-war US election campaign, while Caron answers that it was Bill Clinton in 1992.

Silversprite is Our Man in the US, reflecting on his experiences in the thick of it.

Caron is trying to resist the temptation to stay up, while Holyrood Patter is pondering his likely sleeping patterns for the night. Malc assures us he will be up and blogging.

And now it’s prediction time: Andrew Burns sees an Obama landslide. So does North Britain. And Jamie Cooke. Jeff goes one further, raising the possibility of a clean sweep.

Last Year’s Girl simply asks her American readers to vote, while it’s right to leave you with these final thoughts from Mr. Smith

And that’s your wrap for now: I’ll be putting up links to liveblogs tonight, and don’t forget to join me again on Thursday, when I’m back to cast my eye over your views on the Glenrothes By-Election. Bye-de-bye!